Time of crisis 2018-05-30 11:08:18 AM
Trade wars, the political italian mess , the oil sharp fall all portend to a risk off trade in financial markets. The FED saying it will be careful in deciding new interest rates raise sparkled a rallye on US trasuriesand the $ , with the CHF, are again searched as safe havens. Emerging bond and stock markets selloff are adding to the fears. But as always, risk means opportunities. Example: 6.5% $ bond maturing in 2026 of brazilian meat company Minerva offered @ 93%, yielding around 7.8% at maturity.
View on may 14th, 2018 2018-05-14 2:42:14 PM

Stock markets: the big upmove ignited by the Trump tax reform has come to an end. If there is no follow through from earnings growth, the stock markets are in a dangerous level. early indications are that economic growth will resume in second Half. after the correction, due to interest rate increase in first quarter, we could see a new attempt to reach record highs going to yearend. caution is however needed, hence partecipate to the stock market , but don't risk all cash in.

Bond markets: after correction , HY bond look again interesting.

Currencies: the rallye on the $ is over for the time being. buy back euro. 


Scenario mercati a marzo 2014 2014-03-18 11:51:19 AM

situazione macro: leggera ripresa in EU con tanti rischi: possibile sorpresa positiva? USA:  crescita moderata con effetto tapering non dirompente come anno scorso e comunque modulato a seconda dei dati economici. Cina: secondo semestre fine raffreddamento. America Latina: leggera crescita. Petrolio: da stabile a leggermente debole. Inflazione: nessun problema ancora, tanta space capacity. Globalmente i margini sono piu' positivi. Clima politico: sempre di piu' si chiede di accostare poliche di crescita al rigore, movimento di aumento tassi finito. Qualche spiraglio di ottimismo? Mercati azionari:  2013 grande crescita, anticipazione di quanto succede ora nel mondo economico; volatilita' II e III trimestre soprattutto se non si tradurra' in profitti societari. I tassi bassi forniscono base per evitare tracolli, ma scivoloni di 5-10% su singoli mercati non si possono escludere. Mesi da aprile a settembre pericolosi: giocare difensivamente e non aver fretta di entrare. Aumenti dei dividendi gia' nel 2014 realta': sostegno borsa. Tassi interessi: Usa: Treasury alla lunga in rialzo anche se adesso stanno digerendo il rialzo di fine 2013 (10y 2% da 1.7%). Corporate: spread troppo basso. HY; se tasso 5% + e corti si possono considerare a seconda del settore, societa' o sopranazionali. EUR: Draghi dovra' mantenere tassi bassi e forse intervenire in maniera eccezionale per sostenere il passaggio di liquidita' delle banche al settore privato: ancora credit crunch; dovra' pure intervenire per far scendere EUR. Obbligazione max 5-7 anni: prestare attenzione al nome corporate


summer menu 2013-06-28 11:57:45 AM

it has come the time to close the short position on the US Treasuries. The 10-years yield has risen from 1.82% to 2.42%. We are closing the position. In the meantime, stock markets have corrected in the last 2 weeks and are giving signes of stabilisation. We would increase positions during the summer time, but only in days of weakness. We still prefer the US-Market compare to Europe. Sectors to be privileged are:

banking - technology - row materials and HY dividend companies.

Companies that we like fondamentally and technically: Citigroup, UBS, Caterpillar, Aaple, Total, Nestle, Swiss Re, Telecom Italia, Siemens, Bouygues, Carrefour.

correction finally arriving? 2013-05-23 3:44:46 PM

It appears that yesterday's remarks by Mr. Bernanke on Q.E. and today's bad data from China have finally sparked the correction we were waiting for. Today's equity markets  are on average down on 2% and 10-years Treasury yeald are above 2%. We suspect that correction on equity market can be another 8% lower in the next 3 months and Treasury yealds to reach 3% bevor year end.  As such we are very prudent and holding cash for the time being. Having in mind that probably in september we could reach the lower point of the equity market, an in order to increase te return, we are selling put options on several stocks with strike price at 10 / 15% lower than current market prices.

pay attention to the markets 2013-03-14 3:42:38 PM

after 10 days of continuing rise in the US markets, it may be prudent to hedge or even lower exposure to equity. Raise some cash. Todays surprise announcement that jobless claims were lower than expected did not move the markets. We doubt that all good news are already priced in. In the meantime 10y Treasuries are moving in the direction that we forecasted in the previous notice and yields have risen from 1.95% to 2.06%. Is is the beginning of a greater move?

Investment tactics for 2013, view at the beginning of the year 2013-02-18 2:43:35 PM

Still a volatile year, too many risks around the world.  Some concerns faded avay during and at the end of 2012, but no structured reforms and decisive actions taken by the european governments. Election year in many countries bring incertitude. 

On the bright side, the world economy will rise at a higher pace than last year. Central banks still accomodative but markets will start to reflect a more restrictive monetary policy around the world (exit of QE's, reflation starting to appear!)

Prefer shares over bonds, but still on a trading markets with swift and deep moves.

Buy only on corrections. Start to consider buying a protection against a risk in long term interest rate (f.ex. buying a put on 10y Treasury bonds with maturity end of the year). Sell eur around 1.37 against US$ and buy them back at 1.30.


Time to reduce positions? 2012-07-03 10:56:19 AM
After th european summit, there has been a reduction in risk avoidance and the markets went up nicely. We are using this opportunity to reduce equity exposure, that we had built in the last few weeks. There will surely be another chance to increase equity exposure during the summer. For now we take small profits and reduce risks.